Key Insights:

• Experts predict the SEC may appeal the XRP sales ruling, questioning its alignment with securities law.
• The SEC is likely to target the programmatic sales ruling, arguing it conflicts with the Howey Test standards.
• Despite legal uncertainties, Ripple continues to explore new business prospects, including the RLUSD stablecoin and XRP Ledger developments.

The ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may be heading toward another pivotal moment, as a former SEC lawyer has suggested that the agency will likely appeal Judge Analisa Torres’s ruling from July 2023 regarding Ripple’s programmatic sales of XRP. The SEC has until October 7 to file an appeal, and the focus remains on whether the agency will challenge the court’s decision.

According to a former SEC lawyer, several agency officials believe that Judge Torres’s decision on Ripple’s programmatic sales of XRP was incorrect. The ruling determined that Ripple’s programmatic sales did not constitute an unregistered securities offering, a conclusion that some SEC insiders argue does not align with established securities law.

Despite acknowledging that XRP itself is not a security, the SEC may pursue an appeal to address what it sees as legal inconsistencies in the programmatic sales ruling. The primary point of contention lies in whether these sales meet the criteria outlined in the Howey Test, which determines the classification of investment contracts. The appeal would not dispute the classification of XRP itself but would focus on how Ripple’s sales were conducted.

Legal Experts Weigh in on Appeal Possibilities

Several legal experts have shared their views on the potential for an SEC appeal. Marc Fagel, a former SEC regional director, noted that the agency is expected to appeal as the deadline approaches. 

Attorney John Deaton, who has been involved in the case and filed an Amicus Brief on behalf of XRP holders, has also commented on the matter. Deaton argued that Judge Torres’s ruling on programmatic sales was based on specific facts unique to Ripple, making it challenging for the SEC to overturn the decision.

Deaton pointed out that even if the SEC could argue that other secondary sales of XRP might meet the Howey Test, the circumstances in Ripple’s case did not satisfy those legal standards. He also highlighted that for the SEC to succeed on appeal, it would need to prove the existence of a “common enterprise,” a point that was not strongly established in the original case. Deaton estimates that an appeal would be both costly and time-consuming, with limited chances of reversing the original decision.

SEC’s Focus on Investor Protection Amidst Legal Strategies

While the potential appeal remains a key issue, some legal experts have questioned whether the SEC’s pursuit aligns with its core mission of investor protection and capital formation. Attorney Jeremy Hogan expressed doubts about the SEC’s intentions, suggesting that the appeal might divert attention from other regulatory responsibilities. There is ongoing debate on whether the agency should prioritize this appeal over broader market concerns.

Bill Morgan, another legal analyst, has estimated a 60% chance that the SEC will proceed with an appeal, particularly concerning the programmatic sales aspect of the case. Despite these probabilities, Ripple and its supporters view the court’s decision as a positive outcome, offering greater clarity on the legal status of XRP and its use in the market.

Ripple’s Future and Market Prospects Following Court Ruling

Amid the ongoing legal discussions, Ripple President Monica Long has emphasized that the company is focused on future business opportunities. Speaking on the recent court ruling, Long noted that the decision has provided more certainty for Ripple and XRP, enabling the company to explore new avenues such as the introduction of the RLUSD stablecoin and developments on the XRP Ledger.

The ruling has been seen as a key moment for Ripple as it continues to expand its operations and seek new partnerships. While the possibility of an SEC appeal looms, Ripple’s leadership remains optimistic about their position and the broader market potential for XRP.

As the October 7 deadline approaches, all eyes remain on the SEC’s next move, which will have lasting effects on both the legal landscape and the cryptocurrency market. The Ripple vs. SEC case continues to be closely watched, reflecting broader regulatory challenges facing the digital asset industry.